Weekend Smorgasbord of Observations

I think I will simply walk through a pile of everything I see here.


1. No Matter How I Slice the S&P, I Think We Will Go Higher

There are 8,000 ways to examine the S&P here, but in general, I think they all still sort of point up next.

On the most bullish view, We have broken up out of a bullish wedge inside a bigger bull flag in a wave 1 & 2 in minor (green), then minute (blue), and then finally minuette (orange) degrees. On this count, we should be entering the most powerful central thrust of this impulse wave.

In support of this count, first at the lows, and then twice this week, the drops have felt awful, steep, sharp and abrupt. And that’s what “twos” feel like, generally. They are spooky, no one wants to buy them, and as a result they miss the “threes,” which is where the real money is made. So if we move 300-400 points next week in a real hurry, we might be doing something like this.

ES

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Three Charts That Make Me Think We’re In Something Entirely New

About a year ago, I detected a fundamental shift in a few names that I felt might give us clues as to where we’re going. I want to revisit that thought today.

What you saw in that tweet is a breakout that may signal a major shift in the economy as we’ve known it. Perhaps it is a shift in the nature of globalization brought on by the pandemic.

But, in each of these cases, these major US manufacturers all did something interesting. Their stocks have been in declines in some cases for decades but then that may have now all of sudden changed. It appears to me that they have all broken trend. Their trends have been down, and they have been so during the long period of the decline of US manufacturing. However, if their trends have now changed (institutions know what’s coming before we do, and they play the long game), then perhaps the decline of US manufacturing is also changing.

Some examples.

$GM, despite not quite looking like it’s been in a downtrend, it is, in a phantom way, as their shares pre-GFC were in the 70’s. That said, the rally from the COVID lows is the first time it’s produced a strong impulse wave in many, many years. And, it’s returned to the 61.8% retracement of that advance, which makes it an excellent candidate for a wave “2.”

GM

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$GM Bull Count and Target

$GM, much like $F, likely has a significant low in place. My expectations are for it to rally to the orange box in the course of this first minor wave.

GM

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.