Here Are Some Thoughts I Have on Gold

There are lots and lots of ways I can try to count this long period of consolidation we’ve had, but I don’t like to count structures such as this as too many counts seem equally reliable, and so I like to rely on other tools. So, first, we see what everyone sees: contraction in price, followed by a breakout that gold bugs the world over have been waiting for, for a year. Is it bullish?

Hmm, I dunno. I want to splash cold water on that thought for a strange reason: I’ve been around a little while, and it seems to me (at least in my lifetime) that the public is more interested in physical metals right now than I have ever seen in my lifetime (and it was quite a doozy after the GFC). And when I see average folks deeply passionate about an idea, my instinct is to run in the other direction.

And why would the public be so passionate? Well, there are narratives present today spread by popular and charismatic speakers who make a persuasive argument: the Fed is out of control and gold is your hedge. You can outsmart the reckless Fed by denominating your wealth out of the fiat that they are debasing as fast as they possibly can. And hell, not gonna lie, it sounds good.

Nevertheless, the popularity and broad acceptance of that story inclines me to anticipate a great disappointment, because the public is never really right about that sort of thing (or so says the contrarian embedded deep within me). And so, even if I were to acknowledge the bullish potential of this breakout, I would remain uninterested until there was a retest. The old adage is (as it should be): don’t buy the breakout, buy the retracement. So, if we retest the upper trend line, that would be a good entry, because that’s also now the stop.

GOLD

Read more “Here Are Some Thoughts I Have on Gold”


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


Member Request: An Update on $GOLD

A member has requested a look at gold, and so let’s do that here.

My last discussion of gold was in this post, and despite that being in an article exploring the possibility of deflation, whereas now I am more firmly inclined to believe we may reflate for a considerably longer period of time, the count I suggested in that prior article still looks good to me, and in past market melt ups, gold does not necessarily do very well. The instrument moves so slowly that there is no essential update from the prior count I proposed, though I have had to move a couple of trend lines.

I believe public speculation in the metals is at near all-time highs (suggested in part by the high premiums we are seeing over spot for physical). So long as the prior two highs hold (green arrows), I continue to lean to the view that this will eventually fail somewhat dramatically.

GOLD


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


The Arguments for Reflation and Deflation: A Look at the Dollar, Gold, Uranium and Oil

At around the beginning of the year, I identified three fundamental “narratives” that would govern the general outlook of the market:

  1. That deflationary forces could prevail at any moment. This was the most bearish outlook, and it meant that one would chronically want to look for a major top at any moment.
  2. That the markets would price in reflation—but falsely so—for quite some time (months or more). This was a “let’s play along for awhile” outlook, and it meant that one would allow the market to act like it was going to come out of this whole mess in one piece, but knowing that the first option above would eventually take over.
  3. That somehow they actually did throw enough money (or “reserves” even, if you like) at the system that somehow we would enter a period of genuine growth. This was the most bullish outlook, and it meant that we were actually in the early stages of a multi-year bull market.

Last year I had been insisting on the first, but eventually I learned my lesson and accepted that either of the two other alternatives had some real grit. I have been toying with those latter two options ever since, letting those govern my general counts, and it’s been lovely. But, I think 3 is very unlikely now and I think 2 has probably played itself out, leaving us left with number 1.

What I want to do in this article is show how reflation versus deflation could manifest itself on the charts of the dollar, gold, uranium and oil.

Read more “The Arguments for Reflation and Deflation: A Look at the Dollar, Gold, Uranium and Oil”


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


I Believe a Low Has Formed in Gold

The move lower in $GOLD counts well as a correction and so at least a temporary bottom should be in place, and my first target from here is the orange box.

GOLD

Read more “I Believe a Low Has Formed in Gold”


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


An Additional Thought on $GOLD, Longer Time Frame

The technicals I pointed out this morning on $GOLD point to a short-term move, but I’ve spotted an inverse head and shoulders pattern that may also come into play over the coming weeks, even perhaps couple of months. Obviously we will need the neckline to be recaptured, but I will note the measured move target because I think we will recapture it. Despite not having a right shoulder, I suspect it stopped selling where it did today because I think it’s going to try to make one.

GOLD


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


$GOLD May Find Support Here

$GOLD has a couple of short-term technicals coming together here. It is approaching the 50-61.8% retracement of the prior advance (orange box below) and the 50% retracement (top of that box) also coincides with equal legs parity between C and A as I have it hypothetically labeled here. If this is only a correction, it may find support here and, at a minimum, may rally to the orange box above us.

GOLD

Read more “$GOLD May Find Support Here”


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.