The Mile-High View on $IBM: What a Stagflationary Decade Will Look Like From Here

My last post on $IBM was here. Written before the realities of inflation were fully upon us, I was open at the time to a continuation of the bull market.

Since then, a powerful rally has not emerged, and so let’s take a look at the very long-term picture.

From the 1960s, a beautiful 5-wave advance is apparent. Everything counts well as an impulse wave. Tip top. I believe the fifth cycle (yellow) wave is truncated at the April 2014 high (because of both the available waves up there and the fibs available to us up there).

This count suggests that we have been correcting the 50-year advance since those highs, and we shouldn’t expect this to finish any time too soon. Cycle (yellow) 2 took 50% as long as cycle (yellow) 1 to complete, and whatever this larger correction is, it may also take 50% as long to correct, which may take us into the 2030s. I have noted one possible eventual target for cycle (yellow) c (the 78.6% retracement of the entire advance)

IBM


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


This Same Chart Pattern Is Appearing on Many Dozens of Names; Here Are 20 Examples

The pattern is self-explanatory. I see it present on dozens and dozens of names. I will show you 20 examples of where I see it, and list about 10 other tickers where I see it (but without also posting the chart).

Now, with this pattern, it shows potential, not guarantees. I just find it interesting that I see it in so many places all at the same time. Could they all fail together? Yes. It is a pattern that you can see in a down trend. However, it is also a pattern you will often see at a very bottom. If these do play out, many, many dozens of names may have already bottomed.

$AAL

AAL

Read more “This Same Chart Pattern Is Appearing on Many Dozens of Names; Here Are 20 Examples”


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


$IBM May Have Entered a Third Wave Advance of Intermediate Degree

Though $IBM did not retrace to the ideal range for a wave 2 (tiny orange box just beneath us), the pullback was in three distinct waves and so it may be complete (I believe that it probably is). The target for intermediate (orange) 3 is the orange box, though based on the longer-term wave degrees that may be involved, this may go up for many years from here (there is a possibility that the COVID low was of supercycle degree).

IBM


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.