In this post, I described a scenario in which $IYT could sell off somewhat significantly. And while it has gone a bit lower since that post, I am revising that view now. The market feels much too bullish here for me to able to accept a decline of that nature. I am going to revise the view in the following way:
I now believe we may fill out a falling wedge of some kind before eventually rallying to the orange box. I will file the original post under “Cancelled.”
$IYT is in a bearish configuration.
It looks to have completed a triangle “B” wave and so I would expect it to move lower from here in 5 waves. This blue c wave should have a fib relationship with the blue a wave. I have posted three of those relationships. Ideally we look for equal legs, which is the lowest target, but it is no requirement. I will try to update this if the first two waves down offer me greater clarity.
[UPDATE]: I have revised this view here. I am filing this post in “Cancelled.”