The advance off the COVID low may be counted as a 5-wave advance. There is significant bearish divergence on the RSI. If this is a 5-wave pattern complete, we may expect a correction (in either time, or price).
What is not clear to me at this time is the wave count of the higher degree. The long-term pattern is difficult to try to guess. If that is a “1” up there, we may get a retracement to the orange box below. If it’s some other wave, we may move as much sideways for some time as we do “down,” or, if an even larger degree has completed, we may go even lower than that target box.
But, in any case, should this divergence hold, I would expect the most recent all-time high to remain in place for quite some time (many months).
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