Super Long-Term $MSFT Fractal

This article is intended to complement the last one I just wrote.

When we look at a structure like this, it’s very difficult to accept it readily as an impulse wave. You can try, but it’s difficult. I’ve taken stabs at that before (such as here). But this doesn’t really look good, and lacks good impulse wave-like fibs.

MSFT

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


A Look at Microsoft, Since It Was Dumb And Pumped on an Earnings Miss

My goal here right now is to make sure that I’m not being stupid and being bearish in a new bullish trend. The last two times I discussed $MSFT in detail was here and here. This has had a 13% rally since its earnings miss, and let’s review how things look now.

In those prior articles, I discussed the danger it faced were it to fall from this structure and lose its long-term trend line. And nothing really has improved here. Its rally did little but run to the top of its trend line.

And though I’m trying to be cautious and ensure that I’m not missing an entry into a big move to the upside, if I just look at this as honestly as I can, it still just looks terrible to me. It counts well as a correction. Now, down there to yellow “a,” there’s perfect 1:1 wave balance (between the pink waves that compose it). And if that was the whole correction, that would be a wave balance at which it could finish. However, what comes after it, that little triangle down there (see the others I detected here—they’ve all become bigger, but they’re all still valid) is in no universe what I would expect to see at the low.

And so, I’ve just got to insist on that for now. I think there’s got to be another leg down, a big yellow “c” wave. And if this fails, it can see a 40% drop (at least). All of this would be totally different had this created an impulse wave off the low, but it didn’t. And so I just can’t trust it right now.

MSFT


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


$MSFT Update

Previously, I discussed some technicals on Microsoft. It probed that trend line discussed in that article again recently and has enjoyed a rally from that low.

However, in the process of doing that, it has created a very bearish structure. Another breach of that trend line and I think this may have quite a drop ahead of it. I have noted the H&S target in the chart.

MSFT


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


Two More Generals: $GOOGL & $MSFT

I already discussed Google in the 4th chart here. And that so far has been working out, as the high there did fail. The target from that post remains the same:

GOOGL

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


$MSFT Looks Dark

I’ve given the bulls the benefit of the doubt because it’s prudent to do that. Many bear markets in history are “one and done”—we hit the 20% area and off we go again. But, one also cannot take that too far, and I really don’t like the structures we are building on anything right now. And frankly, we might actually be in very serious trouble.

There just isn’t a good bid under the market. I have not yet seen any good signs of institutions stepping in at any low and gobbling stuff up with appetite. And when we look at things like $MSFT, the next moves available to us start looking very dark. That doesn’t mean what I’m about to show is going to happen, only that the potential is here.

We have a down channel. We have a midline which has served as a magnet from both highs and lows. We pierce it all the time, as we are now.

IF we sell off again, we’re going to breach a very important long-term trend line for the second time. And when we do that twice, the first time often weakens it, and it means the second time we do it, we may lose it for good. So, potential here for something super bad. Unless we actually get a Fed pivot, this can go a lot lower and take a lot of things with it if it does. This is the sort of setup that can produce a real waterfall.

MSFT

I hope I’m wrong to point this out, I hope the Fed pivots, I hope we can go on with our lives. But, we need to know this risk.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


Behold, the Structures on Tech: $AAPL, $GOOGL & $MSFT

This has been a shit show. But, I’m feeling very optimistic tonight. It’s been very difficult looking for the low. However, in reviewing things this weekend, I am amazed by how many individual names made higher lows while big tech made new lows. That is very bullish, for the markets to support less important names like that. And in virtually all of the cases where those higher lows have been made, the rallies have been impulse waves.

For example, let’s look at $ADBE, which I have just added to my “Other Selected Counts” page. A beautiful, 5-wave impulse up, and a clear 3-waves back. The rally up from the 5/12 low had no overlapping waves, and with the rally today, the move since the 5/17 high now has overlapping waves. So, it’s an impulse up and a correction back. That means the trend is now up.

ADBE

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


$MSFT Macro Structure, Target

This structure looks complete. Initial target is the trend line/orange box.

MSFT


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


Weekend Observations on the Stock Market: Bear Porn Edition

Though I have been determined to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for as long as possible (bubbles can go on far longer than most of us can think is even sane), cracks first appeared, and now there are plenty of additional outright crevices at this point.

Let’s look at a variety of things.

My working hypothesis for the moment is that the S&P 500 may be forming a large bear wedge, perhaps even replicating the one found at the top of the dot-com bubble (discussed here, for instance). And so far, the rejection of 4600 continues to support that thought:

ES

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


Now Let’s Do $MSFT

As discussed here, generating a wave count for $MSFT is difficult because there’s just not a lot of structure. On the widest view, we only really have one “big” correction that is visible from outer space:

MSFT

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


$MSFT Bullish Consolidation Target

Generating a reliable long-term wave count for $MSFT is virtually impossible given the perfectly exponential curve of its long-term trend. There are not enough big corrections to derive credible corrective waves of anything past Supercycle 2 (which seems clearly to be the move from the dot-com bubble bursting through the GFC). Everything past that seems like guessing to me. Everything after that is in some indeterminable wave 3 for which fib extensions are completely powerless to assist us.

For all we know, we are still only in the ones and twos of that 3.

We can, however, generate targets locally using basic structures and local fib extensions and zig-zag rules. A successful breakout of this consolidation should take us to the target box above:

MSFT

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.