To give you guys an idea of why I am so supremely concerned here, I want to examine India’s Nifty 50 index because its structure here provides an excellent example of what I think is a very stealthy top. Elliotticians look for 5-wave advances and 3-wave retracements to help them to confirm direction. And even non-Elliotticians do this instinctively because the market’s fractals condition us to. Everyone, wavers or not, knows what an impulse wave feels like and what a correction feels like. It’s the reluctance and acceptance of these two basic motions that trains our collective psychologies through the experience of being in the market.
Now do you think the market is going to top so beautifully, clear its throat for us and ring a bell so that we can all get positioned just right? Of course not. It’s going to sneak up on us.
Looking at the $NIFTY, what do we see off the October high? 3 down, 5 up, clear as fucking day. And so every Elliottician (except retards like me) is going to accept that basic assessment and insist the trend is up.
But I think this may be a grand illusion.
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