An Observation on the New York Composite

I would like to make an observation on the New York Composite ($NYA). Clearly, like so many instruments, we can identify a long range. And, as we all know, sideways trading ranges are either distribution or accumulation. I have given this a tentative Wyckoffian labelling (as distribution) so that we can identify some of its features, but we can’t be sure of its accumulation or distribution status until it moves more decisively out of the range one way or another.

That said, there is a feature that seems clear to me and I want to bring it to your attention, because it seems to me to be a very telling clue.

Just look at the price action as we move from left to right across the range.

Do you see how it goes from being less volatile to being more volatile? You can see that the violence of the moves (up and down) increases as time passes, yes?

And for Wyckoffians, that is often understood to be a symptom of the market being passed from strong hands to weak hands.

If that is true, it may mean that smart money has already left.

NYA

We won’t know this for sure without another breakdown, but if we see another sign of weakness, and a failed rally after that, this could be lights out.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


An Exhaustive Guide to the Most Significant Elliott Wave Count Alternatives Available to Us

My members have largely given me permission to post this publicly, so now you owe each of them a beer.

I keep these alternative wave counts in my mind at all times, and I’ve worked on them over many months, but I thought it would be helpful to lay them all out for you, as well. As the market moves along, I try to judge and estimate the probabilities of these various options, and I will take the time to present these alternatives to you in a single post so that you can see them more easily in one place, yourself. These are the various most reasonable count alternatives we have available to us (there are probably a few more, but I think these are the best candidates). As you examine the many Elliott Wave counts out there in the wild, you will almost certainly see those counts among these (or close variants).

I will work through each one in turn, raising some of their pros and cons, and what sorts of evidence we might need to see in order to begin shifting to any one in particular. I will also discuss which ones are more or less probable, in my opinion. I will sort them roughly from their bullishness to their bearishness.

This post is super long and geeked out, so be warned, this won’t be for everyone.


1. The Lesser 1-2 Pump Count

This is the most immediately bullish count. There are many ways to count the waves around the 1-2 we’ve just completed (I’ve just picked one sort of arbitrarily, but just about any will do here), but the fact remains that the low we reached on 9/20 came right to the 61.8% retracement of the advance from the minute (blue) 4, as I have it labeled here. In a market where, for over a year, most lows are “one and done,” this would give us that if we move up straight away from here without really looking back for some time.

I would definitely assign this count as “possible,” but it is not my favored count now, for reasons you will read shortly (regarding the structure of the move off the recent low). But: if we move up and—crucially—take out the all-time high, this is probably what we’re looking at. We would likely be in a third wave advance (on this labelling, of minuette [orange] degree) and it should have some legs for a bit before consolidating (sideways-ish) before then going on to make another high after that (up there toward the green 3).

MINI-1-2-PUMP

Read more “An Exhaustive Guide to the Most Significant Elliott Wave Count Alternatives Available to Us”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$NYA Count Indicates Nearing End of 4th Wave

On this count for the NYSE Composite Index ($NYA), we either are or are nearly finished with the final segment of wave 4 of minor degree (wave fours often fall short of their trend lines). When this is complete, we should advance in 5 waves to the the top of intermediate 3. (This is the most conservative count: there are much more bullish ways to count this, and all indices, but one thing at a time).

NYA


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.