My members have largely given me permission to post this publicly, so now you owe each of them a beer.
I keep these alternative wave counts in my mind at all times, and I’ve worked on them over many months, but I thought it would be helpful to lay them all out for you, as well. As the market moves along, I try to judge and estimate the probabilities of these various options, and I will take the time to present these alternatives to you in a single post so that you can see them more easily in one place, yourself. These are the various most reasonable count alternatives we have available to us (there are probably a few more, but I think these are the best candidates). As you examine the many Elliott Wave counts out there in the wild, you will almost certainly see those counts among these (or close variants).
I will work through each one in turn, raising some of their pros and cons, and what sorts of evidence we might need to see in order to begin shifting to any one in particular. I will also discuss which ones are more or less probable, in my opinion. I will sort them roughly from their bullishness to their bearishness.
This post is super long and geeked out, so be warned, this won’t be for everyone.
1. The Lesser 1-2 Pump Count
This is the most immediately bullish count. There are many ways to count the waves around the 1-2 we’ve just completed (I’ve just picked one sort of arbitrarily, but just about any will do here), but the fact remains that the low we reached on 9/20 came right to the 61.8% retracement of the advance from the minute (blue) 4, as I have it labeled here. In a market where, for over a year, most lows are “one and done,” this would give us that if we move up straight away from here without really looking back for some time.
I would definitely assign this count as “possible,” but it is not my favored count now, for reasons you will read shortly (regarding the structure of the move off the recent low). But: if we move up and—crucially—take out the all-time high, this is probably what we’re looking at. We would likely be in a third wave advance (on this labelling, of minuette [orange] degree) and it should have some legs for a bit before consolidating (sideways-ish) before then going on to make another high after that (up there toward the green 3).