One Last Intermediate-Term Discussion for the Weekend (Important Perspectival Considerations)

This post is just some chill weekend things to consider. Maybe a companion to a cup of coffee or some whiskey. Nothing urgent in here.


This is back burner stuff, so just tuck this away somewhere and pull it out only in case we need it. As I’ve said, I’m not particularly in love with the bullish thesis, but I also won’t completely dismiss it yet, either. I want to summarize why, and discuss a target possibility and what that could mean for various instruments.

  1. We know that especially by the June lows, sentiment reached absurdly poor levels, levels typically associated with lows that have great endurance (months not weeks).
  2. We know that historically, the market has never topped (so far as I can see) before a hiking cycle has begun (I understand this time might be an exception).
  3. The structure off the top of the market has been especially choppy, perhaps too much so for a real bear market.
  4. The rally we recently had broke a lot of records, and did a lot of things that typical “bear market rallies” tend not to do.
  5. The breadth thrust we had during that rally we just had was unusually strong. Stronger than the thrusts in typical—even very strong—bear market rallies of the past.
  6. Also, the NYSE Composite Index made a new high after the other major indices, which it has never done before. Usually, it diverges, making a lower high when the S&P makes a higher high at the high. The NYSE Composite topped on 1/14/22; the S&P on 1/4/22. Highly unusual.

Because of all of that, I am at least open to the possibility that we go to all-time highs once more. That may sound ridiculous, but that rally did impress me. Now, if we go and check back in on that head and shoulders neckline that we just broke today and fail from it, so be it. I’ll be all bear for months. But what if we don’t? If we don’t (fail from it), this is roughly what I would expect.

IF we do rally, I’m not expecting some ridiculous rally to 7500 or anything like that. There is a terrific fib at 4950.25 on the nose. It is the 50% extension of the rally from the COVID low to the all-time highs, extended from the June low:

SPX

Read more “One Last Intermediate-Term Discussion for the Weekend (Important Perspectival Considerations)”


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


The Case for a $PLTR Bottom

Here is a count for $PLTR that suggests a low of great significance is being put into place.

I will make some observations on some of the technicals:

  1. The high volume candles that have recently formed suggest capitulation.
  2. There is bullish divergence on the RSI.
  3. The lowest low on the RSI corresponds with the “3rd” wave (on my count), which is what we would expect to see.

From this point, we will need to see it stabilize, perhaps enter a period of accumulation, but at some point form an impulse wave on lower timeframes to help us confirm a low, and we will need some initial move up before we can begin generating targets. That said, if it is a primary (pink) 2 down there, as I believe it is, then it will eventually take out its prior all-time high.

PLTR


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


$PLTR: Bull Count and Targets for 2022

I will defend the bullish stance I’m taking here in a separate article, so let me just focus on this particular call.

The last call was here, and it’s worked well. The trouble for bears here is that it started its life off with a very nice impulse wave. And it’s obviously corrected ever since. And its come to roughly where we would expect it to come to for a two. And so, goodness, this may be only in the early stages of a huge move that will last for some time. The minimum target is the orange box above, but it may go significantly higher, and in fact I expect it to so that there will be a huge gap between it first and fourth primary waves The other targets are 113, 150 and 186).

The public is very bullish on this stock and I think this long, exhausting correction has simply shaken most of them all out.

PLTR


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


Possibility of a Fade Fade on $PLTR

According to my principal analysis (which of course could be wrong), $PLTR may have more downside ahead. The first leg down can be counted as a leading diagonal in five waves, so this counter-trend bounce should be a B wave (or a 2, it doesn’t really matter at this point—that’s what we get to test on the next step).

Once it finishes a 3-swing move to the box above (it’s still in the first swing), it should move towards the lower target in five waves. If it gets to the box, then it’s more likely a 3rd wave and not a C. If it goes in that direction but falls short of the box, then the correction may be over.

At this point, all I’m looking for at the moment is more up, then more down. It’s the magnitude of the next down that will tell us more.

PLTR

Read more “Possibility of a Fade Fade on $PLTR”


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


$PLTR Next Moves

I was the first Elliottician that I know of who was able to identify the big B wave triangle (arrow) some time back, and I was expecting a big plunge and got that. I expected it to go deeper than it did when it fell there, and then when I accepted a bottom, it rallied higher than I expected (to the orange 1). It’s a new stock, so it’s all still in development as big players vie for various positions. But it’s fascinating to play because of the volatility and it’s an interesting company, I think.

After the last successful short-term call on $PLTR that I made here, I think I’m ready to commit myself to a new call. Just because I got the last one right on the kisser does not mean I will get this one, too, but I will explain my reasonings.

What makes me skeptical of a moonshot here is everything above that red scoop. There’s so much overlapping chop that I almost have to insist that it’s corrective, rather than impulsive. So, I’ve drawn parallel rails to complement the measured move I’ve been pointing out down there for the minor (green) C, the end of intermediate (orange) 2. And that’s where I think we’re most probably headed. I think the whole thing is a big corrective flat, and it needs 5 waves down to complete.

The alternative is that all the overlapping waves above the scoop are essentially ones and twos and we’ll moon to $60 in a heartbeat, but I have doubts about that.

PLTR

Read more “$PLTR Next Moves”


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


$PLTR Finding Initial Support Here May Lead to a Rally

The structure on $PLTR has been difficult to count. That said, the wedge it is in may indicate that it needs to make a further high to test the top of the wedge again (the bullish case is that it will move above it, but I will remain conservative here on this one).

Target is the orange box / trend line.

PLTR

Read more “$PLTR Finding Initial Support Here May Lead to a Rally”


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.