A Quick Look at $RBLX

Someone had asked me about $RBLX, and I forgot about it. I have discussed it before, and I have a thought on it now, so I will point out a few things.

I have attempted to count the structure before (here, here) but it’s a difficult mess. Until something larger “finishes,” I don’t have a great way to count it, but, I do think I see a very large structure.

Now, my worries at present regarding the U.S. indices are that we’re enduring merely a bear market rally, and that we will go on to make new lows again. I would absolutely love to enjoy a long, bullish run, but without a damn Fed pivot, I’m not seeing it, and the best we might get is a pause, and even that, maybe not for a while. And to compound matters, I wanted to see an accumulation, but we’ve gone straight up, which makes me suspicious that smart money never absorbed the supply. So, I’m bearish on the indices until I see something better.

And, in line with that, $RBLX may have formed a gigantic bearish wedge:

RBLX

One target for that is the orange line, but it easily could go to a much lower fib, too. But, getting cut in half is a good enough first target, so I’ll leave that for now.

And, I suppose, this all still makes sense. Stocks like this do well in environments with peak liquidity, where speculation can run freely (it’s a growth stock, newly established), and if we’re entering the opposite regime for a while, I wouldn’t expect this stock to do well. So, if it stays below the upper green trend line, I would expect this structure to fail.


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


This Same Chart Pattern Is Appearing on Many Dozens of Names; Here Are 20 Examples

The pattern is self-explanatory. I see it present on dozens and dozens of names. I will show you 20 examples of where I see it, and list about 10 other tickers where I see it (but without also posting the chart).

Now, with this pattern, it shows potential, not guarantees. I just find it interesting that I see it in so many places all at the same time. Could they all fail together? Yes. It is a pattern that you can see in a down trend. However, it is also a pattern you will often see at a very bottom. If these do play out, many, many dozens of names may have already bottomed.

$AAL

AAL

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


A Look at the Death Spiral that Is $RBLX

$RBLX remains somewhat unclear to me. But I will note a few things here.

  1. The move first to all-time highs then immediately to all-time lows makes me believe that this may be a large expanded flat correction.
  2. The final leg of such a structure should be a 5-wave impulse, and that’s just what it looks like.
  3. There is bullish divergence present (and very sharp bullish divergence on the daily), which inclines me to think that the middle (strongest part) of the move is behind us.
  4. There is a fib relationship that may work here, but I am not certain of it, as I am not certain yet about the structure of what I have labelled as intermediate (orange) “A.”

And so, what we would like to know is how close this is to being done, if it’s going to be done and produce a new bullish structure. And I’m not sure. It is difficult for me to count the final 5th minor (green) wave of orange “C” as complete, as I do not yet see 5-waves there. So, it may go lower. But, perhaps the most momentous part of the move is behind us. There is good volume here, perhaps suggestive of capitulation.

We will need to see some big green, high-volume candles to gain any confidence that its decline is nearing an end.

RBLX


Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


A First Look at $RBLX

I have been watching $RBLX since its inception, and so far at least, everything looks basically corrective. If we wanted to test whether the whole corrective period is over, now is our chance, as the little move off the recent lows is a little 5-wave move (green arrow).

What we would like to see from here is a pullback to roughly the orange box below, followed by another rally to the orange box above. If, during the course of all of that, we form another 5-wave move of a larger degree, we can gain confidence that it is entering its first, genuinely bullish sequence.

RBLX

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.