$T Requires a Revision: A Grave Development

In my last call on $T, I was merely looking for a counter-trend bounce as we were at multi-decade support. High probability call, imo. Well goodness. Not even a fight (that has now been filed under “Unsuccessful Calls.”)

As a result of that, let’s look at the long-term Elliott Wave count. The whole move from the dot-com high is corrective price action. I see 5 waves down for cycle (yellow) a, followed by a 3-wave retracement for cycle (yellow) b, and so we should be in cycle (yellow) c.

Now, we’ve just given up a twenty-year trend line, and we need to listen to that. Cycle (yellow) c should be a 5-wave drawdown. I believe we have completed both primary and intermediate ones and twos and are embarking on the third of the third. Primary (pink) 3 has a target range of the orange box below. I apologize for its size, but that’s just what fibs do on a stock like this whose price has varied so dramatically as a percentage.

As far as where cycle (yellow) c could end up in the end, there is one fib relationship that seems reasonable, which I’ve marked. That will give cycle (yellow) “c” and “a” a relationship in price, which we like to see. If we try to use the next fib up (the 61.8%), it would take us to a double bottom with cycle (yellow) a, so that’s also a possibility if these next waves don’t extend a lot.

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$T Should Give Us at Least a Countertrend Bounce

Despite the bear flaggy look, $T is coming out of deeply oversold territory and has trend line support. We may expect at least a countertrend bounce to the target area, if not a completion of the sideways correction.

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.