In my last post on $TLRY, I warned that the bullish wedge risked the loss of its potency as it was approaching the apex of the structure, and that has turned out to be true as it has simply continued to drip lower..
Looking at the long-term picture, it may be the case that the entire decline culminating in the COVID crash is but a single wave of a 3-wave structure (pink A), followed by its second leg, its own 3-wave structure (pink B). And looking at the long-term chart, I see no reason at this point to doubt that it will repeat the endless bleed it endured from 2018-2020.
It is not possible to use fib relationships between pink A and pink C here in price, as all fib relationships will yield negative share prices. The best we can do is to use fib relationships in time. I have suggested two, where pink C will have either a 61.8% or 100% relationship with pink A. Ideally it will take out the low of pink A at some point, and if its even still alive at all at that time, then it may enter a long-term bullish sequence from there, but until then, I suspect its long correction is not yet over.
In this tweet, I identified a bullish wedge which has formed on $TLRY. While the structure remains intact, and the bullish divergence on the RSI also remains, what we often like to see on wedges like this are exits closer to 75% of the way through the wedge. It was already running out of real estate when I pointed the structure out before, and though it has since pushed through the wedge, the move from the July 27th low does not look impulsive and we have reached the very tip of the structure.