This Leg of Correction on $TLRY Possibly Complete

Last post on $TLRY was here, said it could continue lower for a while. It’s lost almost 20% since then. So far, so good.

But now, in several names (growth in particular), and market generally, I am detecting symptoms of total capitulation (weird near all-time highs, yeah?). Now, on this count, the intermediate (orange) 3-swing move looks probably done here. We got 5 waves for A in a leading diagonal, and the C requires another 5 waves (and could be an ending diagonal). So, we need 3 distinct lows and two distinct highs. And we’ve got all of that. Now, the whole A-B-C structure might just itself be an A of a much larger correction, but that won’t really matter for the time being. At a minimum, we would expect some kind of retracement of this entire correction, the whole correction now needs to correct (or outright reverse).

So, we may target the 50-61.8% retracement of the prior decline.

TLRY


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Some Random Additional Evidence

Adding some thoughts to the post from earlier. I had some of these jotted down, and forgot to add some of them. But, I think they’re also worth considering, so I will just run through them quickly here.


Volatility

It is a bit ominous that the $VIX will not give up this green trend line beneath it. The fact that we have been unable to, despite the magnificent rally we just had is telling. I was expecting a big rally (much later in time) that would crack this trend line, bringing us into a volatility regime change. That was part of my bull thesis. Instead, we got the tremendous rally early, but no volatility regime change. That makes me think this might now go higher.

VIX

Read more “Some Random Additional Evidence”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$TLRY May Enter a Bleeding Death

In my last post on $TLRY, I warned that the bullish wedge risked the loss of its potency as it was approaching the apex of the structure, and that has turned out to be true as it has simply continued to drip lower..

Looking at the long-term picture, it may be the case that the entire decline culminating in the COVID crash is but a single wave of a 3-wave structure (pink A), followed by its second leg, its own 3-wave structure (pink B). And looking at the long-term chart, I see no reason at this point to doubt that it will repeat the endless bleed it endured from 2018-2020.

It is not possible to use fib relationships between pink A and pink C here in price, as all fib relationships will yield negative share prices. The best we can do is to use fib relationships in time. I have suggested two, where pink C will have either a 61.8% or 100% relationship with pink A. Ideally it will take out the low of pink A at some point, and if its even still alive at all at that time, then it may enter a long-term bullish sequence from there, but until then, I suspect its long correction is not yet over.

TLRY

Read more “$TLRY May Enter a Bleeding Death”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$TLRY Bull Wedge Risks the Loss of its Potency

In this tweet, I identified a bullish wedge which has formed on $TLRY. While the structure remains intact, and the bullish divergence on the RSI also remains, what we often like to see on wedges like this are exits closer to 75% of the way through the wedge. It was already running out of real estate when I pointed the structure out before, and though it has since pushed through the wedge, the move from the July 27th low does not look impulsive and we have reached the very tip of the structure.

TLRY

Read more “$TLRY Bull Wedge Risks the Loss of its Potency”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.