Public Post: The Rout in Bonds Is Probably Over: A Look at $TLT

In my last post on $TLT (here), I expected a low to be forming because of the wave balance that was present at the low that was formed in June. Ironically, and to my great embarrassment, that post marked the top of the rally, and we have since had another decline. So let’s look again.

That wave balance was so perfect, that it was strong evidence, but it was predicated on the start of the whole yellow a-b-c count having its origin at the top of the COVID crash peak (which I’ve marked with an orange box in the chart below).

tlt

Looking at it this way, with an alternative high, makes it almost impossible for me to not see the structure as now complete. It’s clearly a large 3-wave decline, and it counts internally well in the course of the yellow “c.” And, while there are great fibs within yellow “c,” there is not a relationship between yellow “a” and yellow “c” if we use the COVID spike as the origin of yellow “a” which i had tried to use before.

However, by using the August of 2020 high as the origin, there is now wave balance between the yellow “a” and “c” waves, and that all coincides with balance between the pink waves that make up yellow “c,” too. And so this is a terrific spot for bonds to have finally bottomed.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


I Ain’t Skeered: Weekend Recap of the Markets

My basic views remain unchanged. That said, until we see a big rally, we have yet to see a big rally. I would have been pleased to see big, fat reversal candles across the board, showing some real institutional support in the markets, but they have no big appetite yet. If they are active in the markets here, they are active only very secretly, buying only to the extent that exactly offsets the supply, keeping prices in a weekly doji candle. If they are here, they are absorbing the selling and not a penny more.

Given the monstrously bearish sentiment I believe has washed over the public, I would like to believe that retail is liquidating here, but until we get a bid, there’s no way for me to know.

In this article, I will simply walk through a lot of charts and other data. Most of them can be interpreted to suit your own expectations here, whether bearish or bullish. That’s how the bastards left us hanging this week, lol. But, I hope the presentation of information is of some help to you.


Local Structure

I didn’t like having to point this out today—the possibility of a triangle—because I remain fairly well convicted about my bullish call, and yet, it does present a threat, and I would feel terrible if I didn’t at least point it out and we puked.

Now, this range we’ve been in this week could absolutely just be a Wyckoff accumulation. If it is, it is harmless:

ES

Read more “I Ain’t Skeered: Weekend Recap of the Markets”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


A Few Observations on Junk Bonds

I want to make a few observations on $JNK. I like to watch it (and other high-yield debt instruments) for signals. Now, when we simply look at the chart, it’s in a total free fall, a total bloodbath:

JNK

Read more “A Few Observations on Junk Bonds”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Several Small Data Points

Just a few observations I would like to pass along.

Check the dates, maybe it’s that easy, something to do with institutional buy and sell scheduling, unsure:

SPY

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


An Important Update on $TLT

Previously, I suggested that $TLT would fall to circa $126 and we’re there now and we should see how things stand.

First, in a basic sense, let’s examine the structure. From the COVID crash, I believe we have (at least so far) proceeded in a huge, 3-wave decline. That’s the cycle (yellow) a-b-c. My target in that linked post above came from two features of this chart: the long-term trend line below and the nearest fib relationship to that channel:

TLT

Read more “An Important Update on $TLT”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Let’s Look at a Bunch of Things

As most of you already know, I expected a bounce, and so far, we’re getting just that. Then today, I expressed openness toward the idea that instead of only reaching the 3/3 high (which could eventually produce a “flat topped triangle”), we could also go higher to form “parallel rails.” One reason for that is the distance I think Apple may need to travel: were it to reach its bull wedge structure, the S&P 500 would need more space, too.

But the structure today has me even questioning the parallel rails thought now. And the reason is: the S&P 500 is moving more that Apple is. And if Apple needs to get to the bullish wedge, the S&P is probably not going to be confined by even parallel rails here.

So, let’s examine some things. The parallel rail look (fake bull wedge breakout look) looks like this, below. The problem for this is that intermediate (orange) “C” should be a 5-wave move, and while that would have been okay before the FOMC drop, it’s not so great now. To be frank, this looks more like a 1-2.

ES

Read more “Let’s Look at a Bunch of Things”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.