In my last post on $TLT (here), I expected a low to be forming because of the wave balance that was present at the low that was formed in June. Ironically, and to my great embarrassment, that post marked the top of the rally, and we have since had another decline. So let’s look again.

That wave balance was so perfect, that it was strong evidence, but it was predicated on the start of the whole yellow a-b-c count having its origin at the top of the COVID crash peak (which I’ve marked with an orange box in the chart below).

Looking at it this way, with an alternative high, makes it almost impossible for me to not see the structure as now complete. It’s clearly a large 3-wave decline, and it counts internally well in the course of the yellow “c.” And, while there are great fibs within yellow “c,” there is not a relationship between yellow “a” and yellow “c” if we use the COVID spike as the origin of yellow “a” which i had tried to use before.

However, by using the August of 2020 high as the origin, there is now wave balance between the yellow “a” and “c” waves, and that all coincides with balance between the pink waves that make up yellow “c,” too. And so this is a terrific spot for bonds to have finally bottomed.

My last post on $TLT was here. In that post, I was looking for a reaction (and perhaps a long-term low) at the equal legs fib for cycle (yellow) c (of purple b). And fortunately, we did get that (at least so far). Touching that fib has produced the largest rally in this instrument since May 2021.

Now, if it was a near-permanent low, I would prefer to see an impulse wave off of that low (and it doesn’t look like one so far), but it’s not a hard requirement because the long-term upward-sloping count also seems to me to be a corrective pattern. From here, given the importance of that fib, and the divergence that occurred at the low on the daily RSI, I would expect that low to hold at least for a while more (weeks and perhaps months).

One potential target is the 250-day EMA (projected by the green line), the slope of which should begin to flatten as bonds move up more. So, I would to like to see it get to there before trying to reassess things at that point.

Zoomed way in to the 1-minute, we can see an initial reaction to that fib pointed out earlier. Let’s see if that means anything. I’m counting on you, Algos. Don’t let me down.

My last major update on $TLT was here. In that post, I had identified a fib level and recognized that we had reached my target from here. In the meantime, it’s just kept vomiting.

However, I am changing what I had viewed as a triangle B-wave (yellow degree) to a simpler 3-wave move, and from that, we have a clear 5-waves down. If that is correct, we are virtually at yellow “c” = yellow “a” now.

Read more “$TLT Update: Are We Finally Getting Close?”

Previously, I suggested that $TLT would fall to circa $126 and we’re there now and we should see how things stand.

First, in a basic sense, let’s examine the structure. From the COVID crash, I believe we have (at least so far) proceeded in a huge, 3-wave decline. That’s the cycle (yellow) a-b-c. My target in that linked post above came from two features of this chart: the long-term trend line below and the nearest fib relationship to that channel:

Read more “An Important Update on $TLT”