Member Request: A Detailed Look at $TSLA

A member has requested an examination of $TSLA. There are many technical observations I would like to point out.

Stocks such as this are totally at the mercy of a liquidity-driven market, and for the time being at least, liquidity is fleeing. That said, for all we know, the Fed may respond dovishly to the events in Europe, driving liquidity back into the system. And if so, there are many names such as this one that can resume strength. Let’s look at the chart.

There are many observations I would like to make:

  1. I have long suspected that $TSLA is somewhere in its cycle (yellow) 3/4/5 cluster.
  2. I lean to the view that it is in the 3/4. One reason for that is the move from the March 2021 low to the all-time high. It does not have the appearance of an impulse wave.
  3. If that move is a “correction,” then—since it made a new all-time high—it is likely in a huge “flat” for cycle (yellow) 4.
  4. If that is true, then we should be in the primary (pink) “C” of that 3-wave move.
  5. If this is a 4, the low made at the end of February 2022 reached an appropriate level for a wave of that degree
  6. And since there are now 3 distinct lows, we may count the structure off the all-time high as an ending diagonal (the 5-wave count in orange)
  7. If all of that is true, then so long as it stays above about $772, we may expect that it has begun a new impulsive structure to the upside.

TSLA

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Member Request: An Update on $TSLA

$TSLA is bedeviling to count all year, so I don’t have high confidence in any one count in particular yet, but, I do have some structure here that I think may help us. I suspect that if the markets rally sharply here, this will travel at least to the upper trend line.

TSLA


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Member Request: A Quick Look at $AMZN and $TSLA

A member has requested a look at $AMZN and $TSLA.

I think that Amazon, like so many instruments, has been in a triangle of its own. In its case, this latest structure counts well as 3-wave A-B-C (in blue), which may be the final 3-wave structure of the triangle as a whole. If that’s so, I would expect it to begin to rally.

AMZN

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$TSLA May Dive to Circa $750

$TSLA looks to have completed 5 waves down for minute (blue) 1, a 3-wave retracement for 2, and should be in its third minute (blue) wave. It may have completed minuette (orange) 1 of that wave. On my interpretation, a 3-wave counter-rally from here should fail. If so, the target for minute (blue) 3 is the orange box below.

TSLA


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A Wild Thought on $TSLA

Before going any further, it would behoove you to read the last posts I’ve made on $TSLA here and here.

The problem I’m having really boils down to two things: 1) the wave degree correction I’m understanding us to be in (cycle) needs to be BIG, especially in time, and 2) I cannot unsee the triangle that formed in July of this year (you’ll see this below marked as an orange B in the middle).

There is still a way to salvage this whole move as a “correction,” and it, too, would be to make it a flat. And honestly, it counts pretty well that way, the triangle can sit in there as the intermediate (orange) B, the second triangle in there can be the minor (green) 4, and we may simply have had a super-extended minor (green) 5 (of orange C, of pink B, etc).

I like this well enough I think I’m going to call for it. We should see 5 waves down to pink C (if a running flat, lower if expanded).

TSLA


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Revised $TSLA Call

My previous call on $TSLA was for a retracement to complete a wave 4 of cycle degree (I now consider that call to be a failure). It has since moved up too much for my liking. While that other call may still be possible, it now seems dubious to me. The one problem is that if we’re going up (and we are), we have to count this impulsively, and the only way I see to do that involves a strict rule violation. I can’t unsee the triangle in there, but if it’s a triangle, then’s there’s also an overlap between minute (blue) one and four (arrows). There are only three inviolable rules in Elliott Wave Theory, and that’s one of them.

The only other way to try to count this is as a whole bunch of scrunched up ones and twos. At any rate, we seem to be in a third wave advance. The minimum target is the orange box, but it may go as high as it would like to.

Michael Burry may be about to get squeezed.

My apologies for not being able to anticipate this.

TSLA

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Revision of My Recent $TSLA Call and More Confidence in a Longer-Term Count

In this post, I pointed out an inverse that had formed on $TSLA, but it has morphed into something else. I believe we will still go up in price, but not as high as predicted in that post. So, that call is killed, and I have a new one. Also, I expressed the difficulty I have been having with its structure and count, but I now believe I have solved those difficulties.

A summary of some of the issues at hand:

  • The grinding nature of the move up from May almost certainly means it is still in a correction, not any kind of new impulsive move.
  • That triangle I’ve stuck an arrow on is a huge clue. They only occur in “B” and “4th” waves. And there’s no way to make that a 4, even by force, so we can conclude that it’s a B.
  • If it’s a B, then what follows is a C and should be a 5-wave pattern, and that looks good. And I think we’re in the 4th wave triangle of that. The inverse I had pointed out before turned into that instead and it’s a big clue for me.

So, I also believe that cycle wave 3 was the top of the market, and a big sideways slopfest since then is what we would expect for a 4 of this magnitude, so that’s good.

We would expect a 4 of this degree to end, ideally, at the lower end of the orange box. We can draw a barely ascending triangle around all of the price action, and that’s what I think we’re in. So, the next moves on this analysis: a drop to minute (blue) e, then a rally to pink D, then a 3-wave drop into the target range for big pink E, then it’s going to surpass the prior high in five big waves over a very long period of time, a bull run of probably a year or more. And I will post a zoomed in view below this chart as well.

TSLA

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Big Move Possible on $TSLA

I am having a difficult time counting $TSLA at the moment, but this chart pattern can support our efforts in the meantime. It appears to be a reasonably well-formed inverse. The measured move is noted.

TSLA


[UPDATE]: This inverse has failed against my expectations and though we are still likely to move above the price that this stock was at the time of this post, I now do not believe we will get to the measured move target. Because the price remains roughly where it was when I made this post, I will file it under “Cancelled.” I have since written a new post detailing my revised views.


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.