A Wild Thought on $TSLA

Before going any further, it would behoove you to read the last posts I’ve made on $TSLA here and here.

The problem I’m having really boils down to two things: 1) the wave degree correction I’m understanding us to be in (cycle) needs to be BIG, especially in time, and 2) I cannot unsee the triangle that formed in July of this year (you’ll see this below marked as an orange B in the middle).

There is still a way to salvage this whole move as a “correction,” and it, too, would be to make it a flat. And honestly, it counts pretty well that way, the triangle can sit in there as the intermediate (orange) B, the second triangle in there can be the minor (green) 4, and we may simply have had a super-extended minor (green) 5 (of orange C, of pink B, etc).

I like this well enough I think I’m going to call for it. We should see 5 waves down to pink C (if a running flat, lower if expanded).


Revised $TSLA Call

My previous call on $TSLA was for a retracement to complete a wave 4 of cycle degree (I now consider that call to be a failure). It has since moved up too much for my liking. While that other call may still be possible, it now seems dubious to me. The one problem is that if we’re going up (and we are), we have to count this impulsively, and the only way I see to do that involves a strict rule violation. I can’t unsee the triangle in there, but if it’s a triangle, then’s there’s also an overlap between minute (blue) one and four (arrows). There are only three inviolable rules in Elliott Wave Theory, and that’s one of them.

The only other way to try to count this is as a whole bunch of scrunched up ones and twos. At any rate, we seem to be in a third wave advance. The minimum target is the orange box, but it may go as high as it would like to.

Michael Burry may be about to get squeezed.

My apologies for not being able to anticipate this.


Read more “Revised $TSLA Call”

Revision of My Recent $TSLA Call and More Confidence in a Longer-Term Count

In this post, I pointed out an inverse that had formed on $TSLA, but it has morphed into something else. I believe we will still go up in price, but not as high as predicted in that post. So, that call is killed, and I have a new one. Also, I expressed the difficulty I have been having with its structure and count, but I now believe I have solved those difficulties.

A summary of some of the issues at hand:

  • The grinding nature of the move up from May almost certainly means it is still in a correction, not any kind of new impulsive move.
  • That triangle I’ve stuck an arrow on is a huge clue. They only occur in “B” and “4th” waves. And there’s no way to make that a 4, even by force, so we can conclude that it’s a B.
  • If it’s a B, then what follows is a C and should be a 5-wave pattern, and that looks good. And I think we’re in the 4th wave triangle of that. The inverse I had pointed out before turned into that instead and it’s a big clue for me.

So, I also believe that cycle wave 3 was the top of the market, and a big sideways slopfest since then is what we would expect for a 4 of this magnitude, so that’s good.

We would expect a 4 of this degree to end, ideally, at the lower end of the orange box. We can draw a barely ascending triangle around all of the price action, and that’s what I think we’re in. So, the next moves on this analysis: a drop to minute (blue) e, then a rally to pink D, then a 3-wave drop into the target range for big pink E, then it’s going to surpass the prior high in five big waves over a very long period of time, a bull run of probably a year or more. And I will post a zoomed in view below this chart as well.


Read more “Revision of My Recent $TSLA Call and More Confidence in a Longer-Term Count”

Big Move Possible on $TSLA

I am having a difficult time counting $TSLA at the moment, but this chart pattern can support our efforts in the meantime. It appears to be a reasonably well-formed inverse. The measured move is noted.


[UPDATE]: This inverse has failed against my expectations and though we are still likely to move above the price that this stock was at the time of this post, I now do not believe we will get to the measured move target. Because the price remains roughly where it was when I made this post, I will file it under “Cancelled.” I have since written a new post detailing my revised views.