If the market was genuinely bullish, and in an impulse wave to the upside (an idea explored here), we would expect most stocks to resemble that, and I don’t see it in many places. If we look at Twitter, for example, we would expect it to also be in a 3rd wave to the upside. And I suppose one could try to do it on any instrument if they really wanted to, but when I look at this, here’s what I see.

I see, from the March low, a clear 3-wave advance, followed by a 5-wave decline into July, followed by a 3-wave advance (so far) into today’s close. And it did stop right at equal legs. That relationship will be broken if it gaps up. But, generally speaking, this looks like a 1-2 to the downside, and if futures weren’t ripping, I would expect this to begin the strongest part of its decline, a 3rd wave down, not up. The fibs are all excellent here.

The only other way to do this is to call the July low a truncated low, and to call that the bottom of its bear market. So, let’s see what happens. I would hate to think that the low snuck up on me, but I can’t rule it out while we’re seeing so much strength.

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First, let’s take a look at the long-term picture.

From its low in 2016, it has made 3 distinct highs, but they have overlapped. This is a good candidate for a leading, expanding diagonal (red structure), an impulse wave to the upside that accommodates overlapping waves. At the high in 2021, it formed an ascending triangle that can only either be a 4th wave or a triangle “B-wave.” As it obviously failed, it’s clearly a “B-Wave.” The decline from the highs has therefore taken the form of 3-waves and stopped at support, a major, long-term trend line (green).

And so, from 2016, it is a good candidate for a 1-2 of cycle (yellow) degree:

Read more “A Deep Dive Into $TWTR”

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

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Two observations on $TWTR:

1. The correction in May came to the 50% retracement area of the advance from the COVID lows. And the second advance has retraced 61.8% of its own smaller advance (these are the two orange boxes below the price action). That fits the basic criteria for a 1-2-1-2.
2. It is also forming an ascending triangle, which, in this instance, is also effectively an inverse.

Now, we need to clear the trend line, but if we can: target is the orange box.

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[UPDATE]: Since the price action has broken down twice now from this structure, I am beginning to doubt it. I am going to cancel this call while we are still close to price we were at when I made the original call. I will need to monitor the price action from here prior to making another call.

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

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