Adding some thoughts to the post from earlier. I had some of these jotted down, and forgot to add some of them. But, I think they’re also worth considering, so I will just run through them quickly here.
It is a bit ominous that the $VIX will not give up this green trend line beneath it. The fact that we have been unable to, despite the magnificent rally we just had is telling. I was expecting a big rally (much later in time) that would crack this trend line, bringing us into a volatility regime change. That was part of my bull thesis. Instead, we got the tremendous rally early, but no volatility regime change. That makes me think this might now go higher.
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