A Long- and Intermediate-Term Look at $XLF

In this post, I will discuss long-term and intermediate-term count possibilities for $XLF. Where the financials go, we go, and it’s important to look at the possibilities here.

First, the bird’s-eye view. From the GFC, we can count a very well-organized impulse wave up for cycle (yellow) 1. The “megaphone” concluding in the COVID crash is a good candidate for an expanded flat for cycle (yellow) 2. If so, we should be in cycle (yellow) 3. If the advance off the COVID low is thus primary (pink) 1, and the decline off that high primary (pink) 2, we should be embarking on the most powerful 3rd primary of 3rd cycle degree wave.

I want you to think about that for a moment. Think about just how bearish people are here. And imagine being that bearish just prior to most powerful central wave of a huge, macro structure. It makes perfect sense to me, frankly.

XLF

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


Perhaps $XLF Offers Us a Vital Clue

Three charts for you to look at.

The move down on $SPY from the top is a complete mess to try to count with any strong degree of certainty. We can certainly take any number of guesses, but it’s too hard to say for sure, I think, one way or another. And getting it right sort of matters.

If it’s a 5-wave move down like this (and every single bear out there right now says it is), then we would expect a 3-wave move back up, followed by another devastating 5-wave move down. It would mean that the correction is not over.

SPY

Read more “Perhaps $XLF Offers Us a Vital Clue”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


$XLF Looks Good, Too

Last discussed here, I have been expecting $XLF to complete a pullback of minor (green) 2. And it appears to have done that today. A good retracement, a good 3-wave look to it, twos should be nice and sharp. So, next should be a 5-wave advance to the orange box, and that’s my call.

(Also, I forgot to draw it, but see if you can spot the cup & handle.)

XLF


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


$XLF Looking to Advance After Correction Is Complete

After correctly predicting $XLF’s move to $39 over the summer here, I believe it has completed a first wave of a new 5-wave structure.

The question at hand is: is the green 2 in or not? The expected depth is to the lower orange box where I have minor (green) 2 placed. If that is where it needs to go, we may expect a short rally to the orange box just above us, then a second leg down.

However, if green 2 is already in, it may begin its rise to green 3 now. To be on the conservative side, my prediction will be lower first before higher.

XLF


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.