Member Request: An Update on $ZM

$ZM, as with virtually all of the growth stocks, may have bottomed (finally, good grief).

Initially, off the lows, what I have labelled as minute (blue) 1 looks to be good impulse wave internally. We would like to now see this rally to the orange box (at a minimum) before consolidating and then making a further high. If we get these three distinct peaks, then we may get a larger degree pullback from there and have much greater confidence that the low is finally in.

ZM


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So How Bad Are Things? Weekend Market Update

Alrighty, there are a lot of things I want to discuss, so I’ll just dive right in. We’re seeing some delicious selling, and so we need to ask: Is this it? And if not, then how serious is it? And I will try to address those in this article.

First, Is this it?. I don’t know yet, to be blunt. And as much of me that wants this to be it (because I am bearish by nature), I am not yet convinced that it is it. And I will present some evidence that questions whether this is really it.


Bitcoin

Now, for the Great Liquidity Thermometer, I have been warning that it risked failure and with it equity markets (e.g., here). The frustrating part has been that Bitcoin often leads, and I’ve been watching it closely for signs that it would give up that head and shoulders pattern neckline before equities took a bath, but it held on to that level for as long as humanly possibly before finally taking a bath concurrently with equities.

At any rate, it’s given given us something more of an actual plunge—finally—but now how does that plunge look? Well, on the one hand, we have no idea yet if it’s finished. It could still be well within the move. If it is, we will want to see much lower prices still, as the H&S pattern’s measured move is somewhere deep down around $12-22K. And yet, I will note two features of the plunge so far.

The first feature is the volume profile. Bitcoin’s little plunge so far has taken it (unsurprisingly) to a POC (point of control, red line, the price at which the greatest volume has traded in this timeframe) and it has a huge volume node it will need to work through in order to go lower:

BTC

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I Am Going to Adopt a More Bearish Tone: Here’s Why

Recap:

  1. I had adopted a bullish stance, which was prudent, as we eventually rallied quite powerfully. The count I have been using counts a significant low in place, and this rally as needing a retracement.
  2. I have acknowledged the presence of a more bearish alternative (here) out of an abundance of caution.
  3. However, taking a wide view of the risk signals I look at leads me to want to increase my risk aversion here. I will detail some of those below.

I’ve already complained about this a few times, but Bitcoin is not rallying powerfully as I had expected. To the contrary, it’s been rather weak. I’m not going to ignore that. Here is how I am going to count it until it proves itself with an enduring rally. It’s a long and complex correction, ridiculous actually (mirroring this long and complicated period we’ve been in with equities). But, it could very well need another leg lower.

BTC

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$ZM: Another Growth Stock Which—I Believe—Targets Much Higher Prices

Continuing today’s set of growth stocks, here’s a look at $ZM. I will bring these ideas together in an article hopefully by tomorrow night.

But, my last call on this was here. That failed as I expected the early May lows to support the stock but it only continued to deteriorate. Now, I’ve long since thought that these growth stocks were in some kind of “two,” and the 50-61.8% retracement area seemed like a good place for them to reverse, but they did not.

That said, I smell total capitulation here, a sign that a major trend reversal may be upon us. Now, the next best fib for a two is the 78.6% retracement, and we’re there. It counts well as merely a correction because of that big triangle at the top. A long-term trend reversal will want to see an impulse wave up there and that’s not one. Everything from minor (green) B counts well an an impulse and that’s what we want to see for minor (green) c. Nice big gap in the 3rd of the 3rd at the end of August. That was the meat of the move, everything since then is the end of it.

If that is in fact a 2, you can see where the three should go. I know, I know…

ZM


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A $ZM Update

A member has asked for an update on $ZM. I last posted it about it here, and there are no fundamental changes.

The move down from the July high counts exceptionally well as a correction, and the divergence suggests we will still get at least a technical bounce, though I suspect a major low is forming. We will need to monitor the structure as it rallies to see just how impulsive it looks. But for now, the lower target box (at least) remains a very high probability.

ZM

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$ZM May Offer a Good Risk Reward Here for a Long Swing

A member has asked about $ZM. I have several remarks I can make about it:

  1. The larger orange box on the left is the 50-61.8% retracement of the entire move from the November of 2019 low to the all-time highs. That makes it a candidate for a low of great significance.
  2. Finding initial support above the green trend line is not terrible.
  3. It’s not great that we’ve come back into the range of that original orange box, but it’s not terrible either, so long as we stay above the May low (which I’ve pinned with the orange horizontal line).
  4. It’s also not stellar that we lack RSI bullish divergence at these present lows.
  5. That said, the May low is such a promising candidate for a low of such great significance, and since we are so close to it now, I believe there may be an excellent risk/reward ratio on this. If the May low isn’t the low, we don’t have far to fall to figure that out. A stop could be placed at the May low and no one get’s totally destroyed.
  6. If we are going to rally, it will probably do so very soon, and there are initial targets I would look to, which I have designated with target boxes just above us.

ZM

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Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.