The move down from the July high counts exceptionally well as a correction, and the divergence suggests we will still get at least a technical bounce, though I suspect a major low is forming. We will need to monitor the structure as it rallies to see just how impulsive it looks. But for now, the lower target box (at least) remains a very high probability.
- The larger orange box on the left is the 50-61.8% retracement of the entire move from the November of 2019 low to the all-time highs. That makes it a candidate for a low of great significance.
- Finding initial support above the green trend line is not terrible.
- It’s not great that we’ve come back into the range of that original orange box, but it’s not terrible either, so long as we stay above the May low (which I’ve pinned with the orange horizontal line).
- It’s also not stellar that we lack RSI bullish divergence at these present lows.
- That said, the May low is such a promising candidate for a low of such great significance, and since we are so close to it now, I believe there may be an excellent risk/reward ratio on this. If the May low isn’t the low, we don’t have far to fall to figure that out. A stop could be placed at the May low and no one get’s totally destroyed.
- If we are going to rally, it will probably do so very soon, and there are initial targets I would look to, which I have designated with target boxes just above us.